Predictions for 2012: How Did They Pan Out?

At the end of last year, I made a series of predictions for world events that would take place in 2012. Being an honest sort of lady, it seems appropriate that I should go back and see how well I did.

  1. The scientific community will be rocked when the discovery of superluminal neutrinos is confirmed by a second experiment in Japan.

This one was just flat out wrong; the superluminal results were shown to be the result of a faulty connection, thereby killing the prospect that my interest in physics might be rekindled any time soon. 0 points.

2.  The New Age conspiracy theorist community will be rocked   when the world doesn’t end in December

Well, the world didn’t end in  December, although I’m guessing the New Age conspiracy theorist community is more “making lame excuses” than it is “being rocked.” Still: 1 point.

3.  Protests against Vladimir Putin will either fizzle-out or be violently suppressed.

Putin opted for option (c): make-out that the protests were really about a bunch vulgar, pseudo-feminist self-promoters and so discredit them in the eyes of the public. Still, he remains very much ensconced in power, so: 1 point for Jaime.

4.  After a hard-fought battle, Ron Paul will win the GOP nomination. He will then go on to be absolutely steamrolled by Barack Obama in the election.

This seems like a silly prediction from the perspective of today, but my reasoning at the time was that, in 2011, literally every GOP presidential who wasn’t Romney was getting his chance to surge in the polls: all of them, in fact, except for Ron Paul. I therefore figured that he would be the last one to surge, and right in time for the primaries, no less. Of course, it didn’t pan out; Paul never surged at all, and Romney was eventually able to buy the nomination after exhausting all of his rivals. Of course, it didn’t matter in the end; Barack Obama won anyways, just (I suspect) as he would have won against any of his prospective challengers. So I award myself a half-point for getting the outcome of the election right.

5.  The NDP leadership race in Canada will be polarized between Thomas Mulcair and Brian Topp; Paul Dewar will eventually be elected as a compromise candidate.

Another half point; the race was polarized between Mulcair and Topp, but Mulcair had enough on his side that there was never a chance of a third candidate coming up the middle. Why I thought it would be someone unilingual in English, in any case, remains a mystery of bygone times.

6. The Higgs Boson will be discovered by June.

It was discovered in July. 1/2 point.

7.  There will continue to be no evidence whatsoever of supersymmetry actually existing.

1 point. I predict that for the next arbitrary number of years as well, mostly because supersymmetry pisses me off so much.

8. Stephen Harper will do one of those stupid things that really piss people off, resulting in the largest street demonstrations in Canadian history.

I award myself half a point for the largest Aboriginal street demonstrations in Canadian history having been directly provoked by Harper, but unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of Canadians remain Still Idle.

9. The European Union will reorganize into a much more federated entity; the United Kingdom, however, will withdraw altogether.

Nope; seems I over-estimated the politicians’ capacity to acknowledge the fact that the status quo is not salvageable. Still, I maintain the basic substance of this prediction will eventually prove accurate. 0 points.

10. The Kepler space telescope will discover a planet within 10% of the mass of the Earth, smack dab in the middle of its parent star’s habitable zone. And then it will discover another, and another, and so on, until, by 2013, the discovery of Earth-like planets is no longer considered “newsworthy”

Nope; good year for exoplanets, but none as I described. And specificity is the key here. So: 0 points.

Summing all of these up, it would seem that I am 4.5 for 10. Not terrible insofar as these are concerned.


About thevenerablecorvex

I have the heart of a poet, the brain of a theoretical physicist, and the wingspan of an albatross. I am also notable for my humility.
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2 Responses to Predictions for 2012: How Did They Pan Out?

  1. Lindsay says:

    The New Age conspiracy theorist community will be rocked when the world doesn’t end in December

    I just found out something that makes me super excited!

    You know how people of a skeptical disposition are always wondering what the people who believed these prophecies of doom do when the fateful day passes with nary a bang nor whimper? Well, apparently some psychologists sought out to answer that very question back in the 1950s, and they went so far as to actually join a doomsday cult, stick around until the end failed to come, and record how the cult members coped with that. They wrote a book about it called When Prophecy Fails, which I’ve decided I’d very much like to read.

    Maybe you would like it, too, if this question vexes you as much as it does me.

    • Well, my readings on 19th century Millerite sects showed that whenever one of their doomsday predictions panned-out, their sect would break up into two new sects, each forcasting a new date for doomsday.

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